Why Money Matters in Elections and Why It Doesn’t

Lessons from the CA-13 Primary and What It Means for Kevin Lincoln vs. Adam Gray

A common belief in politics is that the candidate with the most money wins. There is some truth to that. Campaigns require resources to communicate, organize, and turn supporters into voters.

But elections are more complex than a single factor. The 2026 CA-13 Republican primary between Kevin Lincoln and Vin Kruttiventi, followed by the general election matchup between Kevin Lincoln and Adam Gray, provides a clear example of how money, organization, endorsements, and voter behavior all interact—and why none of them alone determine the outcome.

The CA-13 Primary: What the Numbers Show

District-wide results (approximate)

·     Adam Gray: ~41,000 votes (42%)

·     Kevin Lincoln: ~27,100 votes (27.8%)

·     Vin Kruttiventi: ~14,840 votes (15.2%)

·     Daniel Garibay Rodriguez: ~14,700 votes (15.1%)

Kevin Lincoln finished ahead of Vin Kruttiventi by roughly 12,000 votes district-wide.

This was not a narrow margin. It reflected a district-wide gap across multiple counties and voting blocs.

Merced County Breakdown

In Merced County specifically:

·     Adam Gray: 9,629

·     Kevin Lincoln: 6,985

·     Vin Kruttiventi: 4,732

·     Daniel Garibay Rodriguez: 2,818

Kevin Lincoln led Vin Kruttiventi in Merced County by about 2,253 votes.

That detail matters, but it also shows something important: Even if Vin had completely erased that Merced County gap, it would not have closed the district-wide difference.

What Vin Kruttiventi Did Well

Vin Kruttiventi ran a serious and aggressive campaign. His operation included:

·     Extensive door to door canvassing

·     Organized volunteer teams across multiple counties

·     Early and visible yard sign deployment

·     Strong grassroots outreach efforts

·     Personal financial investment in the campaign

·     Conservative movement endorsements, including figures associated with CPAC, Matt Gaetz, and Matt Schlapp

By traditional grassroots measures, Vin’s campaign was active, visible, and well-organized in many areas.

What Kevin Lincoln Brought to the Race

Kevin Lincoln entered the primary with advantages built over time:

·     Name recognition as former Mayor of Stockton

·     Established relationships with Republican leaders and voters

·     Broader district familiarity

·     Institutional political support

·     High-profile endorsements including Donald Trump, JD Vance, and Mike Johnson

These factors created a foundation of credibility that existed before campaign advertising and outreach efforts began.

The Real Lesson from the Primary

The key takeaway from the Lincoln–Kruttiventi race is not that one campaign was “better funded” or “more grassroots.”

Both campaigns had strengths.

Instead, the outcome shows a more complete truth:

Elections are decided by the combination of multiple factors—not any single one.

Those factors include:

·     Money and fundraising capacity

·     Volunteer organization

·     Name recognition

·     Endorsements

·     Candidate credibility

·     Ground game effectiveness

·     Timing and voter mood

·     District-wide political dynamics

Money helps amplify a campaign.

Volunteers help extend its reach.

Endorsements help build credibility.

But none of these alone guarantees victory.

Total Vote Reality: Republican vs. Democratic Strength

Looking at the primary as a whole provides another important perspective.

Total Republican vote

·     Kevin Lincoln: 27,110

·     Vin Kruttiventi: 14,846

Total Republican vote: 41,956 (42.9%)

Total Democratic vote

·     Adam Gray: 41,006

·     Daniel Garibay Rodriguez: 14,746

Total Democratic vote: 55,752 (57.1%)

Democrats collectively outpolled Republicans by roughly 13,800 votes district-wide.

This matters because it reframes the real challenge in CA-13:

The central question is not simply which Republican performs better in a primary.

What This Means for the General Election: Kevin Lincoln vs. Adam Gray

The general election shifts the entire equation.

Kevin Lincoln now faces incumbent Democrat Adam Gray in a district-wide contest.

This is no longer a Republican-vs-Republican comparison. It is a full coalition election.

Why money matters in the general election

Money is essential because it allows a campaign to:

·     Communicate across a large, expensive media market

·     Counter opposing advertising

·     Fund voter outreach and turnout operations

·     Maintain visibility across multiple counties

·     Support field operations and staffing

Without sufficient resources, even a strong candidate struggles to compete.

Why money still doesn’t decide the election

Despite its importance, money does not determine outcomes on its own.

If it did, the best-funded candidate would always win. That is not the case.

Kevin Lincoln’s path to victory depends on more than financial resources. It depends on:

·     Republican turnout performance

·     Independent voter persuasion

·     Crossover appeal from Democrats

·     Message strength on key issues

·     Local credibility and relationships

·     Ground organization effectiveness

Adam Gray’s success will depend on the same dynamics.

The Role of Republican Central Committees

Local Republican Central Committees cannot win elections alone, but they play a critical role in shaping outcomes.

Their impact comes through:

Voter registration

Expanding the Republican voter base increases the pool of potential support.

Turnout operations

Elections are often decided by who actually shows up.

Volunteer infrastructure

Door knocking, phone banking, texting, and community outreach depend on volunteers.

Community credibility

Local leaders often carry more trust than political advertisements.

Coalition building

Connecting campaigns to farmers, business owners, parents, veterans, and community groups strengthens voter outreach.

In close elections, these efforts can be decisive, not because they replace money, but because they convert resources into votes.

Final Takeaway

Looking at CA-13, a few things are pretty clear:

Vin Kruttiventi ran a strong, active grassroots campaign with a lot of energy and organization.

Kevin Lincoln had name recognition, political experience, major endorsements, and broader district familiarity.

And the final margin, about 12,000 votes district-wide, shows that no single factor like endorsements or one county organization explains the outcome.

The Republican Party of Merced County, or any single endorsement decision, just doesn’t account for a district-wide result like that on its own.

At the end of the day, the lesson is simple:

Money matters because it helps a campaign communicate.

Organization matters because it helps turn out voters.

Endorsements matter because they help build credibility.

But none of them replace the voters.

For organizations like the Republican Party of Merced County, the responsibility is pretty straightforward: focus on registering Republican voters and making sure they actually turn out and vote. That requires being active year-round, not just during election season.

That means building relationships in the community, helping identify and register new voters, staying engaged with existing Republicans, and supporting turnout efforts when elections come around. In close races, those efforts can matter just as much as campaign spending or endorsements, because they directly affect the number of people who show up on Election Day.

In the end, elections are still decided by turnout and participation. Everything else money, endorsements, messaging, and organization, matters most in how well it helps accomplish that goal.

-- Gene D. Johnson Jr., Chair, Republican Party of Merced County